Assessing The Odds


6thApril– Board 8. Love All. Dealer West.
Even easy hands have something about them which may cause a moment’s concern. The hand below was not difficult to bid or indeed achieve a positive outcome but there was something of interest.

North:
S J 3 2
H Q 10 5 3 2
D A J
C J 5 4

West:
S Q 10 9 7 5
H 9
D K 10 8 3
C K 10 7

East:
S A 8
H A K J 6
D 9 6 5 4
C A Q 6

South:
S K 6 4
H 8 7 4
D Q 7 2
C 9 8 3 2


  West
 North
  East
  South
     No
     No
     1H
    No
     1S
     No
     2NT
    No
     3NT
    End
    



I bet everyone reached 3NT and I’m sure everyone who did so achieved a positive result but it’s the play in the spade suit that is of interest. How should you play the suit to give yourself the best chance of making four tricks? Obviously you start by leading the ace followed by a low one but what do you do when South plays low as well? If the spades break 3-3 then you can’t guess right if North holds both the king and jack and you can’t guess wrong if South has them. But if South has the king and not the jack you should play the queen from dummy but not if South has the jack and not the king when you should finesse. However it’s the 4-2 breaks that make this combination interesting and you should cater for North having started with jack doubleton by playing the queen. If North started with king doubleton then you have two losers in the suit whatever you do. Geddit?

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